learn-finance-with-phoebe / Leader session 3 of 6
Learn Finance with Phoebe · Leader session 3 of 6

Where the money actually went

Session 2 left two figures a long way apart: Marchmont Instruments earned £445,631 over twelve months and produced minus £297,261 of free cash flow, a gap of £742,892. The most common reaction to a gap that size is that something must be hidden. Nothing is. There is a statement whose only job is to walk from one figure to the other and show every pound on the way, and once you can read four lines of it the gap stops being a mystery and becomes an address. At Marchmont, £664,607 of it is sitting in invoices that customers have not paid yet and instruments that have not been sold yet. Tonight is about the bridge, and about the one line on it that answers the question in the title.

🟡 Foundations Anyone handed a P&L in a meeting Anyone who has to explain a shortfall 45 min
0-3 · Welcome 3-20 · The bridge, four lines 20-40 · Build-along: walk the twelve months 40-45 · Q&A
Part 0

A gap with an address

Session 1 put the three statements side by side and session 2 explained why two of them disagree. Tonight closes the loop. The cash flow statement is not a fourth version of events, it is the arithmetic that connects the other two, and it exists precisely so that a gap between profit and cash can be accounted for rather than argued about. Four lines carry almost all of the meaning, and one of them is the answer to "where did it go". The example is Marchmont Instruments throughout. Session 4 asks why the gap gets worse when trading gets better.

Live = presented in the 45 minutes Self-study = the full depth, after class 🔍 Every diagram zooms

★ What you walk out with tonight. The four line walk from net income to the change in cash, in an order you can reproduce on a napkin. The ability to read a working capital line as a sentence about where money physically is, rather than as a technical term. The Marchmont twelve months, £445,631 to minus £297,261, with £664,607 of the £742,892 gap placed exactly. And the reason the statement exists at all, which is that every pound has to be accounted for and this is the document that does it.

LiveWhy there is a third statement4 min▶

Two statements already describe the business: one says what it earned over a period, the other says what it owns and owes at a moment. Neither of them tells you what happened to the money, and neither can be rearranged into that answer on its own. So there is a third document, and it is built as a reconciliation rather than as a report.

That construction is the point. The cash flow statement starts from a figure that is already published, applies a short list of adjustments, and has to land exactly on the change in the bank balance. If it does not land, something is wrong and the failure to land is how you find it.

Real world

Marchmont's twelve months: net income £445,631, free cash flow minus £297,261. The bridge between them is £742,892 wide. The statement does not describe that as a shortfall or a loss. It names the pieces, and the largest piece by a wide margin is £664,607 of money that went into unpaid customer invoices and unsold instruments.

Self-studyWorking capital, in plain words4 min▶

Working capital is the money a business has tied up in trading rather than sitting in the bank. Three things make it up. Money customers owe and have not paid, which at Marchmont runs at 75 days of sales. Stock on the shelf that has been paid for and not yet sold, which runs at 60 days. And money the business owes its own suppliers and has not yet paid, which runs at 30 days and works in the opposite direction, because an unpaid bill is a free loan for as long as it lasts.

The level of working capital is not what appears on the cash flow statement. The change in it is. Holding £2m tied up costs nothing this month if it was £2m last month too. Going from £2m to £2.3m costs £300,000 of cash this month, and that is the line the statement shows.

Part 1 · covers the bridge

Net income at the top, cash at the bottom

10 min live

The walk is short. Start at the profit figure, add back the cost that took no money, subtract the money that went into trading, subtract what was spent on equipment, and read off the result. Four moves, and none of them requires arithmetic you could not do in your head.

Four moves from what the business earned to what the bank did. Net income for the twelve months What the income statement said those twelve months earned. £445,631 + Depreciation, added back A genuine cost of using equipment, but no money left the bank when it was charged. - The increase in working capital Money that went into customer invoices not yet paid and instruments not yet sold. £664,607 - Capital spending on equipment Money genuinely out of the door, at 3% of revenue, and not a cost of this month's sales. = Free cash flow for the twelve months What those twelve months actually did to the bank balance. -£297,261 Nothing disappears between the top row and the bottom row. The two ends are £742,892 apart, and £664,607 of that gap is the working capital line in the middle.
🔍 Click to zoom - the two middle rows carry no cash figure of their own here, because the twelve month totals that matter are the two ends and the working capital line.
LiveWhy depreciation gets added back4 min▶

Equipment is bought once and used for years. Charging the whole purchase to the month it arrived would make that month look ruinous and the following years look free, so the cost is spread across the working life of the machine. Marchmont spreads it over 60 months. That spreading is depreciation, and it is a real cost: the equipment is genuinely being used up.

What it is not is a payment. No money leaves the bank when a depreciation charge is booked, because the money left when the equipment was bought. So a walk that starts at profit has to put it back, and the money that actually went on equipment is subtracted separately, two lines further down, in the period it was really spent.

LiveReading the working capital line as a sentence3 min▶

The working capital line is the one people skip, and it is the one that answers the question. Read it as a sentence with a destination: this much money stopped being cash and became invoices and stock. Marchmont's twelve months put £664,607 through that door. The money is not gone, it is not spent and it is not lost. It is in a warehouse and in other companies' accounts payable systems.

The direction is worth saying explicitly because the sign confuses everybody at first. Working capital going up is cash going down. A business that suddenly collects faster or holds less stock releases cash and the line turns positive, which is why a company in trouble can post an unusually good cash quarter while shrinking.

Self-studyWhat is genuinely argued about on this statement4 min▶

Two things on the cash flow statement are contested and neither has a settled answer. The first is classification: which section a given movement belongs in. Reasonable preparers disagree, different reporting frameworks answer differently, and the choice moves the headline operating cash flow figure without a single pound of bank activity changing. A reader who compares two companies on operating cash flow without checking what each put where is comparing two different measurements.

The second is the word "free". There is no single agreed definition of free cash flow. Some subtract all capital spending, some subtract only what is needed to stand still and treat the rest as growth investment, some subtract lease payments and some do not. Ask three analysts and you will get three subtraction lists, all defensible. The practical response is not to pick a winner but to refuse the phrase on its own: whenever a free cash flow figure appears, the useful question is what was subtracted to get there, and it is a fair question to ask of your own team as well as somebody else's.

Part 2 · covers the month by month walk

Twelve months, one column at a time

7 min live

The annual bridge hides the shape. Month by month, the profit column rises every single month, the working capital column widens every single month, and the cash column falls through zero. Three columns, one story, and the middle one is the cause.

Every month profitable. Every month more money into trading. Cash through zero in month 10. All five columns come out of the same monthly model run. Month Net income Into working capital Free cash flow Cash at month end 1 £14,062 £0 £10,062 £260,062 2 £17,732 £49,280 -£35,961 £224,102 3 £21,546 £51,251 -£34,544 £189,558 4 £25,509 £53,301 -£33,070 £156,488 5 £29,628 £55,433 -£31,535 £124,953 6 £33,908 £57,651 -£29,938 £95,015 7 £38,356 £59,957 -£28,276 £66,738 8 £42,980 £62,355 -£26,547 £40,191 9 £47,786 £64,849 -£24,748 £15,443 10 £52,781 £67,443 -£22,876 -£7,432 11 £57,973 £70,141 -£20,928 -£28,360 12 £63,370 £72,946 -£18,901 -£47,261 The third column is the answer to the question in the title. It totals £664,607 over the twelve months, which is most of the £742,892 gap between the profit column and the cash column. Month 1 shows nothing there because the opening position is set to match month 1 activity.
🔍 Click to zoom - the highlighted row is month 10, the best month for profit so far and the month the cash balance goes below zero.
LiveThe month that makes the point4 min▶

Month 10 is the best month Marchmont has had. Net income £52,781, up from £14,062 in month 1, with no loss anywhere in the run. In that same month the cash balance is minus £7,432. The reason is one row to the left: £67,443 went into working capital that month, more than the profit earned, because the business shipped more than it collected.

Read across the row and the whole course is there in five numbers. Earning more is what put the cash balance under water, because at Marchmont every additional pound of sales arrives as a promise 75 days before it arrives as money.

LiveWhy the free cash flow column improves while cash gets worse3 min▶

This catches people out in the room every time. Free cash flow goes from minus £35,961 in month 2 to minus £18,901 in month 12, which is an improvement of seventeen thousand pounds a month. And yet the cash balance falls the whole way, from £224,102 to minus £47,261.

There is no contradiction. Free cash flow is a flow and cash is a level, which is the distinction from session 1 doing real work. Every month the flow is negative the level goes down, and a less negative flow still goes down, only more slowly. Marchmont's monthly bleeding is getting smaller and the bath is still emptying.

Self-studyWhat the statement cannot tell you3 min▶

The bridge explains where money went. It does not say whether it should have gone there. £664,607 in invoices and stock is a fact about position, not a verdict on management: the same figure describes a business winning larger customers who demand longer terms and a business failing to collect from small ones.

Nor does it price the alternatives. Collecting in 45 days rather than 75 would change the cash picture completely and change the profit figure not at all, but it means renegotiating terms customers have already agreed to. Holding 30 days of stock instead of 60 releases cash and risks a stockout. The model can measure what each is worth in pounds and is silent on what each costs in goodwill and lost orders, and any lever quoted without that second half is being quoted incompletely. The measured levers are session 4 and the practitioner track.

Part 3 · build-along

Walk the twelve months out loud

20 min hands on

No spreadsheet. Six steps on the Marchmont figures, then the same walk on a set of accounts you actually have to explain.

Say the two ends before you start

Twelve month net income £445,631, twelve month free cash flow minus £297,261. Write both at the top and bottom of a page with empty space between them. The empty space is the £742,892 you are about to fill, and writing it as a space rather than a number is what stops it feeling like a missing amount.

Put depreciation back

Say why in one sentence before you do it: the equipment is genuinely being used up, so it is a cost, but the money left the bank when it was bought, so it is not a payment this month. If you cannot say that without looking, say it again. It is the line most people can perform and not explain.

Subtract the working capital move and name the destination

£664,607 goes in here. Do not write "working capital increase". Write where it is: in invoices Marchmont has issued and not been paid for, and in instruments built and not yet sold. A destination is much harder to forget than a label.

Subtract what was spent on equipment

Marchmont spends 3% of revenue on capital equipment every month, and revenue grows every month. Note that this line and the depreciation line describe the same machines at different moments: one is the money going out, the other is the using up, and the walk needs both.

Check you landed

Read the bottom figure and confirm it is the one you wrote down at the start. A bridge that does not land on the number it was walking towards has a missing line, and finding that line is the only real work the statement asks of you.

Do it on a real set of accounts

Take any published cash flow statement and find the same four things: the profit it starts from, the non cash add backs, the working capital movement, and the capital spending. Then say out loud, in one sentence with a destination, where that company's money went last year.

The habit to keep. When cash is worse than profit, go straight to the working capital line before anything else. It is the largest single explanation in most growing businesses, it is the fastest to check, and it converts a vague worry into a specific sentence about invoices and stock that somebody in the room can act on.

Check yourself

Three questions

The bridge adds depreciation back to net income. Why?

Marchmont spreads equipment cost over 60 months so that no single month carries the whole purchase. The spreading is a genuine cost and not a payment, so a walk that starts at profit has to put it back and subtract the actual capital spending separately.

Twelve months produced £445,631 of net income and minus £297,261 of free cash flow. Where is most of the £742,892 difference?

That is the point of the statement. The money is not gone, spent or missing: it is in a warehouse and in other companies' payables systems, and the working capital line gives it an address.

Free cash flow improves from minus £35,961 in month 2 to minus £18,901 in month 12, and the cash balance falls the whole way. How?

There was no loss in any month: net income rose from £14,062 to £63,370 across the year. The bath empties more slowly than it did and it is still emptying, which is exactly what a negative flow does to a level.

Before session 4

Homework

Twenty minutes, on your own organisation or any company whose accounts are public.

Find the working capital movement

Open one cash flow statement and locate the lines for receivables, inventory and payables. Add them up and write the total as a sentence with a destination rather than a label. Note whether the total helped cash or cost cash, and by how much relative to the profit figure at the top.

Ask what "free" meant

Find any published free cash flow figure and work out what was subtracted to reach it. If the definition is not stated anywhere, write that down, because an undefined figure is the finding. Session 4 shows what happens to all of these lines when growth is turned up.

Covered tonight

What this session covers

✓The bridge from net income to the change in cashFour moves: add back depreciation, subtract the working capital increase, subtract capital spending, read the result.
✓Why depreciation is added backA real cost of using equipment up, with no money leaving the bank when it is charged.
✓Reading the working capital line£664,607 of the £742,892 gap, with an address: unpaid invoices and unsold instruments.
✓The month by month walkProfit rising every month, working capital widening every month, cash through zero in month 10.
✓A falling level under an improving flowFree cash flow improves from minus £35,961 to minus £18,901 while cash keeps dropping.
◐Why growth widens the gapThe growth ladder, measured in session 4.
◐The levers that move cash without moving profitNamed tonight with their real costs; measured in the practitioner track.
○Valuation and what a business is worthA different subject with different tools; not covered here.
Take this with you

Cheat sheet

The walk. Net income, add depreciation, subtract the working capital increase, subtract capital spending.
Depreciation. A real cost, not a payment. The money left when the equipment was bought.
Working capital up means cash down. The sign catches everybody once.
Give it an address. Not "a working capital increase": invoices unpaid and instruments unsold.
The Marchmont bridge. £445,631 to minus £297,261, a gap of £742,892, with £664,607 in working capital.
Month 10. £52,781 earned, £67,443 into working capital, cash at minus £7,432.
Flow against level. A less negative flow still empties the bath, just more slowly.
Ask what "free" meant. There is no single agreed definition, so ask what was subtracted.