Learn Intro to Machine Learning with Phoebe

Your first models, and how to know they are any good.

Two tracks, one running brand. The 6-session leader track teaches executives, PMs, and marketers what machine learning can and cannot do, how to read a model's report card without being fooled by a big accuracy number, and how to commission and govern an ML project - no code. The 10-session builder track takes practitioners through scikit-learn end to end: the sacred train/test split and the leakage trap, a first classifier and a first regressor, over- and under-fitting, the bias-variance tradeoff, cross-validation and tuning, the metrics that actually matter, and pipelines that keep you honest - finishing with a model-comparison capstone. This is the middle link in the Data Science ladder: statistics gave you the math, this gives you the models, experimentation gives you cause. Learn it all on Lumen Skincare.

16sessions, 2 tracks
2models: convert + order value
3live in-browser ML tools
1running brand: Lumen

The leader track 🀝 · for execs, PMs & marketers · 6 x 45 min · no code

A model is only as trustworthy as the reading you give it. This track teaches you to tell a real ML use case from a fad, to read a confusion matrix and an ROC curve, to catch the accuracy paradox before it fools your team, and to commission ML work responsibly - all without opening a notebook. A friendly on-ramp for LinkedIn readers, too.

🧭 Leader session 1 · start here

What ML actually is (and isn't)

Machine learning vs rules and dashboards, the three kinds of learning, prediction vs causation, and when NOT to use ML. The workflow every model follows, in plain language.

β–Ά Start hereNo code
πŸ“‰ Leader session 2

How a model learns, and how it goes wrong

Learning from examples, the train/test idea, and the two ways every model fails - overfitting and underfitting - plus the bias-variance tradeoff, seen live, with no math to do.

Over/underfit
🧱 Leader session 3

The data is the model

Features and labels, garbage-in-garbage-out, and data leakage - the silent killer where a feature secretly contains the answer. Why more columns is not more signal.

Data & leakage
🩺 Leader session 4

Reading a model's report card

The accuracy paradox, the confusion matrix, precision vs recall, ROC-AUC, and RMSE in dollars - what every model metric means and which one to ask for. Threshold as a business choice.

Metrics
πŸ”— Leader session 5

Prediction is not proof

The model zoo at a glance - regression, trees, ensembles, neural nets, clustering - and the line every leader must hold: a model predicts, it does not prove cause. The bridge to experimentation.

Model zoo
βš–οΈ Leader session 6

Putting ML to work responsibly

The lifecycle after launch - monitoring and drift - fairness and bias, buy vs build, and the questions to ask your data team. Capstone: read a Lumen model card like an exec.

Capstone

The builder track πŸ› οΈ Β· for practitioners Β· 10 x 45 min Β· Python + scikit-learn

For DA, DE, DS, and anyone who needs to actually train and judge a model. One running brand - Lumen Skincare - carried across every session: simulate it, split it, fit a first classifier and a first regressor, diagnose over- and under-fitting, cross-validate, measure it honestly, pipeline the preprocessing to kill leakage, and finish by comparing models and picking one. Built with scikit-learn, numpy, and pandas.

βš™οΈ Builder session 1 Β· start here

Setup and your first dataset

scikit-learn, pandas, numpy - and the Lumen dataset built once with seed 42 (reused all course long). Meet the fit / predict estimator API that every model shares.

β–Ά Start herePython
βœ‚οΈ Builder session 2

The train/test split (and the leakage trap)

train_test_split, stratify for imbalanced targets, and the rule you never break: fit on train only. The scaler-on-test disaster, shown in real numbers.

Split it right
πŸš€ Builder session 3

Your first model, end to end

LogisticRegression to predict who converts - fit, predict, predict_proba, first accuracy read - and the moment the accuracy paradox appears on a 3.2% base rate.

First classifier
πŸ“‰ Builder session 4

Over- and under-fitting

A DecisionTree at rising max_depth, train vs test score, and the U-shaped test-error curve - bias and variance made concrete. The single most important picture in ML.

The U-curve
🎚️ Builder session 5

Bias-variance and regularization

The tradeoff formalized, then Ridge and Lasso - how an L2 or L1 penalty dials model complexity down and why Lasso can zero a feature out entirely.

Regularize
πŸ” Builder session 6

Cross-validation and tuning

cross_val_score (5-fold), mean Β± std, and GridSearchCV plus the validation curve - how to pick max_depth honestly, without ever touching the test set.

k-fold CV
🩺 Builder session 7

Classification metrics in depth

confusion_matrix, precision / recall / F1, classification_report, roc_auc_score, and the precision-recall curve - and moving the threshold to trade one error for the other.

Judge a classifier
πŸ“ Builder session 8

Regression metrics + the model

LinearRegression on order value, MAE / MSE / RMSE / RΒ², the predict-the-mean baseline, and single vs multi-feature - watch RΒ² climb from 0.36 to 0.45 as you add signal.

Judge a regressor
🧱 Builder session 9

Feature prep and Pipelines

ColumnTransformer with OneHotEncoder and StandardScaler, wrapped in a Pipeline that kills leakage for good - plus coef_ and feature_importances_, and exposing session_hour as noise.

Pipelines
🏁 Builder session 10

Capstone: compare models

Put it together - logistic vs tree vs random forest, picked by CV, scored once on held-out test, written up as a model card. Then a short KMeans segmentation taste that tees up what comes next.

Capstone
start here - foundations building up - the core craft getting real - evaluation hardest - pipelines & capstone

Choose your path πŸ—ΊοΈ

Leaders start at Leader session 1; practitioners start at Builder session 1. The fast-tracks fit a specific gap.

🀝 Leader journey (no code) A1β†’ A2β†’ A3β†’ A4β†’ A5β†’ A6β†’ curious? Builder session 1
πŸ› οΈ Full builder journey 1β†’ 2β†’ 3β†’ 4β†’ 5β†’ 6β†’ 7β†’ 8β†’ 9β†’ 10
⚑ Evaluation fast-track 2β†’ 4β†’ 6β†’ 7
🎯 First-model fast-track 1β†’ 2β†’ 3
πŸ‘” Leader crash course (60 min) A1β†’ A4β†’ A6

Try the ML playground πŸŽ›οΈ

Three live tools, no install, seeded from Lumen's real numbers. Split the data, slide a tree from underfit to overfit, and move a classifier's threshold to watch the accuracy paradox in action - the same tools are embedded in the sessions that teach them.

One brand, both tracks. Every session works on Lumen Skincare - a synthetic $18M direct-to-consumer skincare label reused from the statistics and experimentation courses. We build two models on it: a classifier for whether a checkout session converts (a ~3.2% base rate, so the accuracy paradox is unavoidable) and a regressor for how large the order will be (mean ~$74, right-skewed). Prior-30-day spend correlates ~0.6 with order value - the same number the statistics course fit - so every figure reconciles across all three courses.
Honest about scope. Sessions distill the leading foundational material - Andrew Ng / DeepLearning.AI's Machine Learning Specialization (the spine), Google's Machine Learning Crash Course, StatQuest, 365 Data Science, and the scikit-learn documentation. Certificates, graded exams, and lecture videos stay with their official sources. Deep learning, ensemble methods in depth, SVMs, heavy feature engineering, and unsupervised depth are pointed to their own sibling courses. This is an applied intro: the workflow and the judgement, not a zoo of algorithms. Content verified July 2026.

The knowledge map 🧠

The builder track at a glance - hover a session to spotlight its concepts, click any node to jump in.

The whole course on one sheet πŸ“

Seven modules: both tracks, the most dangerous number in machine learning, the builder ladder from a clean split to a capstone, the traps that fake a great score, which metric tells the truth, and the one picture the whole craft turns on.

Download for print (2800px) Every word here is real selectable text, so it stays sharp however far you zoom.

learn intro to ML
with phoebe

Your first models, and how to know they are any good
16 SESSIONS Β· TWO TRACKS Β· ONE RUNNING BRAND, LUMEN Β· PYTHON AND SCIKIT-LEARN

SEC-01 Two tracks

LEADER TRACK / NO CODE

  1. a1What ML actually is, and is not
  2. a2How a model learns, and goes wrong
  3. a3The data is the model
  4. a4Reading a model's report card
  5. a5Prediction is not proof
  6. a6Putting ML to work responsibly

BUILDER TRACK / SCIKIT-LEARN

  1. b1Setup and the dataset
  2. b2Train/test split, and leakage
  3. b3Your first real model
  4. b4Over- and under-fitting
  5. b5Bias-variance, and the dial
  6. b6Cross-validation and tuning
  7. b7Classification metrics
  8. b8Regression metrics
  9. b9Feature prep and Pipelines
  10. b10Capstone: compare fairly
16sessions
6leader
10builder
1dataset

SEC-02 The most dangerous number

From session b3
model accuracy 96.8% always answers "no" 96.8% buyers actually caught 0

The two models score the same. One of them is not a model.

The most dangerous number in ML is a high accuracy.
What to ask for instead

ROC-AUC tells the honest story here, and precision and recall arrive in b7. A single headline score cannot distinguish a model from a shrug.

SEC-03 Which metric tells the truth

b7
ROC-AUCRanks rather than labels. Survives an imbalanced class where accuracy does not.
b7
precisionOf the ones we flagged, how many were real?
b7
recallOf the real ones, how many did we catch?
b8
RMSEFor a number-predictor, judged in the units the business already uses.
Session b8 judges a regression in dollars, because a metric nobody can price is a metric nobody acts on.
Pick the metric before you train

Choosing the score after seeing the results is how a mediocre model gets promoted. Decide what good means while the question is still about the business, not about the run you just did.

SEC-04 The builder ladder

1
setup, the dataset one dataset, modelled all course long
b1
2
train/test split clean, stratified, and leak-free
b2
3
first real model logistic regression, scored honestly
b3
4
over- and under-fitting the single most important picture in ML
b4
5
bias-variance and the dial that controls it
b5
6
cross-validation how to tune without cheating
b6
7
classification metrics the ones that tell the truth
b7
8
regression metrics judging a number-predictor in dollars
b8
9
Pipelines feature prep that makes leakage impossible
b9
10
capstone compare fairly, pick with CV, score once
b10
How to climb it

Rungs 2 and 9 are the same lesson twice: leakage is not a mistake you make once and fix, it is a property of how you arranged the work. Rung 4 is the picture everything above it is a response to.

SEC-05 The score is not the proof

From the leader track

Prediction is not proof, and simple usually wins. A model that forecasts well has still not told you why, and cannot tell you what to change.

1
COMPARE FAIRLYsame split, same preparation, same rules
2
PICK WITH CVnot with the test set
3
SCORE ONCEthe test set is spent the moment you look twice
4
WRITE IT UPthe number, and what it does not establish

SEC-06 Four ways a great score lies

LeakageSomething from the future, or from the answer, is in the features. Ask: could this column exist at prediction time?
An imbalanced classAlways answering no scores 96.8 percent and catches nobody. Ask: what does the trivial model score?
Tuning on the test setEvery peek spends a little of the only honest estimate you have. Ask: how many times has this set been looked at?
OverfittingThe model learned the sample rather than the pattern. Ask: how far apart are train and validation?
Sessions b2 and b9 exist because leakage is arrangement, not carelessness. A Pipeline makes it structurally impossible rather than merely unlikely.
The common thread

None of these produce an error. Every one of them produces a number that looks better than the truth, which is why the leader track spends a whole session on reading a report card rather than on how models work.

SEC-07 The one picture

Session b4 calls it the single most important picture in machine learning, and the rest of the builder track is a response to it.
under
too simpleWrong on the training data and wrong on new data. The model has not learned enough.
right
the middleWhere training and validation error are both low and close together.
over
too complexRight on the training data, wrong on new data. The model memorised the sample.
Bias-variance is the dial. Regularization, cross-validation and honest scoring are how you find where to set it.
learn intro to ML with phoebe 96.8% Β· the number that means nothing Β· and the four that do by Phoebe Fu